Clase de Plata Weekly | Sat, Nov 7, 2026
AI Scare Sank Chips, Then Jobs Beat Big
Get every issue in your inbox, plus a free budget sheet when you sign up.
Clase de Plata Weekly | Sat, Nov 7, 2026
What a week. Oil crashed, elections moved stocks, an AI scare hit chips, and then a huge jobs report landed.
SPY (a fund that tracks the S&P 500) closed Friday at 735.36. The Friday before, it closed at 755.78.
The week in 3 bullets
Oil sank, then elections lifted stocks. Monday, the oil fund USO fell 7.07% on hopes for US-Iran peace. Wednesday, Democrats won the House and Senate. The Dow jumped 3.04%, its best day since April 2025, and SPY closed at 766.82.
Thursday, an AI scare hit hard. Worries about AI spending sent chip stocks (SMH) down 11.21%. SPY fell 4.41% to 733.00, its worst day since April 2025. The Nasdaq fell into a correction (down 10% or more from its high).
Friday, jobs beat big. Employers added 165,000 jobs. People expected about 65,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1%. Chips bounced 3.62%, and SPY rose 0.32%.
Our theme still stands: safety over chips. Staples (everyday-stuff stocks) beat chips 3 of 5 days this week.
Next week: prices and events
Prices to watch:
SPY 734 to 736: our line. If it holds, watch 737 to 739, then 748 to 749.
A daily close below 734, and that idea's done.
Options traders price about a 1.3% move either way for SPY through Monday's close. That's a guess, not a promise.
Big events:
Mon, Nov 9: KKR and Constellation Energy report before the open. Take-Two (GTA VI is due around Nov 19), Occidental and Rocket Lab report after the close.
Tue, Nov 10: CPI, the main inflation report (time TBD). A hot number could mean more rate-hike bets.
Wed, Nov 11: Veterans Day. The stock market stays open.
Fri, Nov 13: PPI, the prices businesses pay.
The big worry: strong hiring keeps a December rate hike in play. CME FedWatch showed about a 77% chance of a hike. A rate hike means the Fed makes borrowing cost more, and that's usually tough on stocks.
What would change our mind: a close below 730, or a hot CPI.
Scanner Spotlight: $INGR (Ingredion)
Our latest long-term pick, from Sunday, Nov 1 (6 days old). It's the same name as last week; no newer pick is out yet.
What we saw (Nov 1, using Oct 30 prices): INGR, a staples company, was $96.97, down 12.1% this year. It passed 5 of 7 Graham value checks. Its P/E (price vs. a year of profit) was 10.5, and it pays a 3.5% dividend. Its Graham number (a rough fair-value price) was $121.85.
What it might mean (our view): Money has been moving into staples. INGR looks cheap next to its fair-value price, and it has plenty of cash vs. bills (current ratio 2.8).
What it can't tell us: Its 10-year profit record and growth weren't in our data. These prices are from Oct 30, so check today's price. Cheap can get cheaper.
Riskier pick: $BIRK (Birkenstock)
Birkenstock is the famous sandal brand. It went public in October 2023. It closed at $37.27 on Nov 4, down 8.9% this year.
Why it could grow: It already makes a profit. Sales grew 15% last quarter (not counting currency swings), and it raised its yearly forecast.
The big risk: Fashion can change fast. The stock isn't cheap vs. its sales (3.05 times), and it carries some debt (debt-to-equity about 67%).
How to play it safer: Keep it small. Only add more if it holds above about $30.
Beginner Lesson: Good news can feel bad
Friday, the jobs report was great: 165,000 jobs vs. 65,000 expected.
But SPY only rose 0.32%, and the Dow slipped 0.5%. Why?
Strong hiring can push the Fed to raise rates. Higher rates make borrowing cost more, and that can slow stocks. So traders cheered the jobs, but worried about rates.
The lesson: don't just ask "Is the news good?" Ask "What will the Fed do about it?"
Process over prediction. No chasing.
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Clase de Plata is not a registered investment advisor. Do your own research.
Like this? Subscribe free.
Get every issue in your inbox, plus a free budget sheet when you sign up.
Not financial advice.